Bonus post
I was lucky to join the Contrarian pod to discuss the CPI and the Fed yesterday
Spoiler alert - I got the CPI call wrong but the Fed call right.
Either way, have a listen. Would love to hear what you all think of my latest thoughts.
Also, have a look at the Contrarian pod Substack. I think you might like it.
Stay Vigilant
Sep 13
Inflation Will Ease, Fed Hikes Will Not: Richard Excell (Szn 4, Ep 24)
New episode exclusive!
Contrarian Investor Media
Richard Excell, former prop trader and portfolio manager and currently a professor of finance at Gies College of Business, joins the podcast to discuss his outlook on the economy, inflation, Federal Reserve interest rate policy, and more.
Content Highlights
The outlook on inflation: 5% by December, but don't expect the Fed to ease off of rate hikes (5:11);
Can the Fed engineer a soft landing? It has succeeded just three of the last 14 times it hiked rates... (7:33);
We may not see a housing price decline on a national basis anytime soon (11:04);
Expect a 75 basis point rate hike at the next FOMC meeting on Sept. 20 -- and again at the subsequent meeting in November, even though the economy should not start to brake until next year (13:21);
Background on the guest (16:38);
Views on asset allocation: more constructive for bonds than equities at present (21:39);
A recession will happen. The good news: it may be mild... (27:15);
How much of a concern are global issues in Europe and China? (30:04).
More Information on the Guest
Website: GiesBusiness.Illinois.edu;
Substack: Stay Vigilant;
CommonStock: Stay Vigilant;
Twitter: @ExcellRichard;
LinkedIn (for premium subscribers only).
Thank you again for supporting this podcast. Reminder that nothing here is intended as investment advice. Do your own research, make your own decisions.
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