The Ultimate Return

Why this weekend matters more than markets

On Friday, the tickers stopped, the exchanges were quiet, and the frantic pulse of the macro environment had slowed for the Easter holiday weekend.

Usually, my goal is to help you navigate the complexities of interest rates, debt cycles, and equity valuations. But as we enter this weekend, I want to break character. We spend so much of our lives trying to optimize our portfolios, yet we often neglect the one asset that determines our ultimate trajectory: our soul.

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The Infinite Gap: Why “More” is Never Enough

In the world of finance, we are trained to seek growth. We assume that if we hit a certain net worth or achieve a specific level of influence, we will finally reach a state of equilibrium—or what we might call “happiness.”

The great philosopher Thomas Aquinas identified this fallacy centuries ago. He argued that humans instinctively seek happiness in four things: Money, Power, Fame, and Pleasure. I can tell you from personal experience of 35 years on Wall Street that I have tried to find happiness in bigger bonuses, faster promotions, renown among peers and endless nights at fancy restaurants and night clubs. I found the opposite. The higher up I went, the more I felt lacking.

In my career, I saw other people chase these daily as well. Some still are. As a professor, I hear some students tell me their goal is to get a job that pays a lot of money. But Aquinas’s insight was profound: because these things are finite and fleeting, they can never satisfy a hunger that is infinite. We were made by God, for God, and attempting to fill that void with market gains is like trying to fill the ocean with a teaspoon. As Augustine of Hippo wrote in his book Confessions: “Our hearts are restless until they rest in You, O Lord.” While he is now a saint and a doctor of the church, he didn’t start out that way. He chased the same things Aquinas told us we all chase. Every saint has a past, and every sinner has a future.

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Pascal’s Wager: The Ultimate Risk Management

In trading, we manage risk. We look at the “downside” versus the “upside.” Blaise Pascal, a brilliant mathematician and philosopher, applied this logic to faith in what is now known as Pascal’s Wager.

Pascal suggested that if you bet on God’s existence and you are right, your gain is infinite (eternal life). If you are wrong, your loss is minimal. However, if you bet against God and you are right, your gain is minimal; however, if He exists, your loss is infinite. From a pure risk-reward standpoint, the most “rational” move a person can make is to live as if God exists and seek Him.

I recall a colleague speaking to another colleague who had some atheist views. He simply said, “you are a bad risk manager.” In our portfolios, we are always trying to find convexity. Asymmetric reward to risk. Bigger gains for smaller risk. As Nassim Taleb says, we want to be anti-fragile. If we apply that to our lives, the convex position to take, the long optionality, is to believe in God. Not believing in God is akin to selling options and not taking in much premium to do so. Thus, it is being a bad risk manager.

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Examining the Data: Evidence for the Resurrection

I know many of you are data-driven. You want evidence before you buy into a thesis. Every week I try to bring you data and charts to prove a point. Why would this week be any different?

Faith isn’t a blind leap into the dark; it’s a step into the light based on historical and philosophical footprints. As Bishop Robert Barron says, faith is suprarational, not infrarational. It is not based on irrational credulity or superstition but rather a response to God who engages the mind and critical facilities.

That is, faith doesn’t happen before science or before facts. It happens after we have exhausted all possible facts. His example: you are meeting someone new, so you Google them or look them up on LinkedIn to get some facts about them. You get to know them a bit. Then you meet them. Maybe you have a relationship for years and get to know them better over several drinks of coffee or something stronger. At some point, someone might say “did you hear what so and so did”? You don’t know for a fact what they did. You don’t know what is in their heart. However, you have a lot of data because you have known them for years but at this point, you have to rely on faith or what you believe they did.

That said, you may be looking for a “due diligence” report on the claims of Easter, I highly recommend these resources:

• Bishop Robert Barron – “Evidence of the Resurrection” A clear, powerful walk-through of why the resurrection stands at the center of everything Christianity claims. It isn’t just a nice story; it’s the pivot point of history. Watch here

• Lee Strobel – “4 Proofs of the Resurrection” The former atheist legal journalist lays out the historical evidence like a courtroom case. Short, compelling, and evidence-based for the skeptics among us. Watch here

• Dr. Jeremiah Johnston – “The Shroud of Turin” A leading New Testament scholar and apologist explains why the Shroud of Turin - studied by hundreds of scientists from all disciplines for over 100 years, is the best evidence we have that Jesus was real, He died for us and He rose from the dead, which changes everything. Watch here

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The Bottom Line

You remember those ING commercials from several years ago that asked “What is your number”? The idea was: people have a number in mind at which point they will retire. Do they? If your happiness is tied to your portfolio value, you will never get to the right number. If you have success, you will want a bigger number, a bigger 2nd house. If your number falls short, you won’t retire, you will keep trying. Markets will fluctuate. Currencies will devalue. Empires will rise and fall. If your identity is tied to the markets, you will eventually be crushed by its volatility.

This Easter, whatever your portfolio looks like—whether you’re up big, down big, or sitting in cash—remember that your ultimate security isn’t in any asset class. It’s in the empty tomb

Easter reminds us of a reality that is fixed and unchanging: Jesus is risen. He has conquered death, offering us a peace that the world—and the markets—simply cannot give.

This weekend, I hope you turn off the monitors, put down the charts, and look toward the Savior. He is the only investment that yields an eternal return.

Stay Vigilant—and stay anchored in the One who conquered death. The only data point that matters is an empty tomb.

Happy Easter.