In my posts on LinkedIn this week, I followed a theme that revisits my personal rules of investing. I have done a Substack about those rules in the past, more from the viewpoint of how I formed them over time. You can find that blog in the archives but for those that didn’t read it here they are:
Feels like bears are throwing in the towel and confessing at the alter than Santa is set to drive the market even higher. For some reason I feel hesitant about embracing this outcome, although it does seem rather compelling. CPI will be interesting. Core CPI is expected to go up on 12m basis, and this will be the first time that has happened in a year. If it goes down, I guess the Soft Landing crowd will be channelling Santa and take indices even higher. Although I hesitate to use the word index, given the dominance of the Mag 7.
I agree with you. I feel solidly in consensus throwing in the towel. It feels like too much of a sure thing that we will rally the next month into December expiration. At the start of the year it may be less clear but I really don't think the market can sustainably sell-off until earnings roll over in earnest and we are comfortably through this quarter. I may be more surprised that the 10yr yields have fallen so much, which is another tailwand. Thru 5% and toward 6% may be another catalyst but does that happen now?
Always a very interesting read. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
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Feels like bears are throwing in the towel and confessing at the alter than Santa is set to drive the market even higher. For some reason I feel hesitant about embracing this outcome, although it does seem rather compelling. CPI will be interesting. Core CPI is expected to go up on 12m basis, and this will be the first time that has happened in a year. If it goes down, I guess the Soft Landing crowd will be channelling Santa and take indices even higher. Although I hesitate to use the word index, given the dominance of the Mag 7.
I agree with you. I feel solidly in consensus throwing in the towel. It feels like too much of a sure thing that we will rally the next month into December expiration. At the start of the year it may be less clear but I really don't think the market can sustainably sell-off until earnings roll over in earnest and we are comfortably through this quarter. I may be more surprised that the 10yr yields have fallen so much, which is another tailwand. Thru 5% and toward 6% may be another catalyst but does that happen now?