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Do you think the recent uptick in the ISM along with increase in new orders are together a strong enough signal that a recession is pushed out through end or late 2024?

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I think housing leads everything. The uptick in housing, because the strength in new home sales, is leading to better new orders and a bottoming of ISM. I also think fiscal spending is helping this as well. So, yes I think this has been pushed out to 2024. However, I am watching housing roll over again and am wondering if the uptick in student loan payments will offset fiscal stimulus and think that while weakness was pushed out of 2023, if it will still come back. I am not in the no landing camp as many seem to be.

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Great insight about housing!

RE: student loans, I think it is over-analyzed. Payments started coming in strongly in Sept (before the Oct deadline). Biden admin is forgiving many loans. Those left who need to pay, imo, have the means to make their payments...broad general statement here. Granted, repayments could stymie other consumer discretionary spending...which might not be as bad as it seems...we need to see some cooling in consumer spending.

All these competing macro forces and developments are fascinating to watch play out in real time in the economy and markets.

Cheers, Richard!

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