I am looking at some headlines which seem to argue along the lines that this is a rally to be sold, the low is not in, the ecnomomy is weakening, the worst is yet to come. You get the idea right? But, are these the sort of headlines one gets just before stocks turn lower? Here was another from Bloomberg: Is 'Unbridled Optimism' The Perfect Setup For Stock Shorts?...I feel as if you went from momentum longs going from 100 to 0 and back to 100, and there is risk to being long, but sentiment does not seem to line up for a short, that is my two cents.
I would not be surprised to revisit the lows. I think the catalyst is higher inflation keeping the Fed at bay and lowering multiples. I know bond traders and commodity traders would likely disagree this can happen, and deflation is a higher probability. However, I don't see the collapse in the economy or earnings yet I don't feel like long and closing my eyes makes sense
I spent about an hour reading a variety of opinions. Interestingly 50% were bullish with charts and indicators to support their POV. The other half were equally bearish and had their own set of charts and metrics to show that they were right. Markets at a cross roads and could go either way depending on news / tweets / speculation etc.
Great insights. From a micro perspective, I'm hearing a lot of concerns relating to tariffs paired with tariff mitigation through rerouting supply chains. Many of the industrials I follow have already migrated the majority of global operations out of China as this isn't necessarily the first round of tariffs targeting the country. In addition to this, it appears that there was a lot of pull forward in inventory purchases in q4/q1 in anticipation of a choppy materials market.
I'm not suggesting that all is well in the long run, but things should be fine in the next quarter or two.
I am looking at some headlines which seem to argue along the lines that this is a rally to be sold, the low is not in, the ecnomomy is weakening, the worst is yet to come. You get the idea right? But, are these the sort of headlines one gets just before stocks turn lower? Here was another from Bloomberg: Is 'Unbridled Optimism' The Perfect Setup For Stock Shorts?...I feel as if you went from momentum longs going from 100 to 0 and back to 100, and there is risk to being long, but sentiment does not seem to line up for a short, that is my two cents.
I would not be surprised to revisit the lows. I think the catalyst is higher inflation keeping the Fed at bay and lowering multiples. I know bond traders and commodity traders would likely disagree this can happen, and deflation is a higher probability. However, I don't see the collapse in the economy or earnings yet I don't feel like long and closing my eyes makes sense
I spent about an hour reading a variety of opinions. Interestingly 50% were bullish with charts and indicators to support their POV. The other half were equally bearish and had their own set of charts and metrics to show that they were right. Markets at a cross roads and could go either way depending on news / tweets / speculation etc.
Great insights. From a micro perspective, I'm hearing a lot of concerns relating to tariffs paired with tariff mitigation through rerouting supply chains. Many of the industrials I follow have already migrated the majority of global operations out of China as this isn't necessarily the first round of tariffs targeting the country. In addition to this, it appears that there was a lot of pull forward in inventory purchases in q4/q1 in anticipation of a choppy materials market.
I'm not suggesting that all is well in the long run, but things should be fine in the next quarter or two.
One of the best westerns ever made...they dont make them as good any more. Cheers.
Great film and market breakdown, thanks for sharing!