Off the top of my head I seem to recall past sell offs being led by Asia sessions. Doesn’t appear the case recently. Would be interesting to examine. Maybe higher lows for a bit. Just a thought.
I'd be curious what your view is on the continuation of the gold rally. Does not seem to tell a coherent story with the rest of the market. Breakeven bond rates have been dropping (market not concerned about inflation) and so have 30 year real rates/term premium (market not concerned about sovereign risk). SPX at all time high suggesting it's not concerns over growth. Dollar is meaningfully up against the Euro and Yen over the past several weeks as well.
Great article rich. I think we’re one bad inflation print alongside a Weak jobs number from a sizable pullback. Might not be this fall. But feels closer than 2-3 years. Trump is an economic idiot and will cajole and corrupt the fed until he gets low rates. Then if things turn ugly on inflation there’s no more FED put…
Great point, Mike. I do think the market may read through or ignore the number in the short-term because there is noise from the government shutdown. I do think inflation is still a problem. The positive catalysts I am watching right now, that we can’t lose sight of, are: 1. individual tax returns which are looking positive for consumers in that refunds are expected to be larger than expected 2. falling gas prices which also put money in consumer pockets 3. capex expensing leading to another positive economic catalyst. I do think there are some worrying trends, but these near term cyclical points may elongate the secular cycle
Great question. Gold used to be driven by real rates. However, that connection broke in 2022. The catalyst was US confiscaction of Russian central bank assets. This led many central banks to add to gold holdings. I don't think this latest move over the last few months is fueled by that but I do think the rally starting in 2023 was. The latest is a speculative blowout top driven by momentum trading. Gold is the most overbought I can ever find it. Structurally, I think you should either be long or flat, not short. Tactically, I can see a trade lower back to 3500. However, I do not think the reallocation into Gold is anywhere near over in the medium term
I still think each era is different but holds similarities to others. Things have grown so much with AI and technology, but the human overreaction is what is constant, and it just shows that being vigilant with your investments is even more important.
Halving narrative is always a helpful time period to consider. Sell today buy back next May could be fruitful for btc
Off the top of my head I seem to recall past sell offs being led by Asia sessions. Doesn’t appear the case recently. Would be interesting to examine. Maybe higher lows for a bit. Just a thought.
The cockroach comment, wow. What if it's a whole hidden nest, huh?
I'd be curious what your view is on the continuation of the gold rally. Does not seem to tell a coherent story with the rest of the market. Breakeven bond rates have been dropping (market not concerned about inflation) and so have 30 year real rates/term premium (market not concerned about sovereign risk). SPX at all time high suggesting it's not concerns over growth. Dollar is meaningfully up against the Euro and Yen over the past several weeks as well.
Great article rich. I think we’re one bad inflation print alongside a Weak jobs number from a sizable pullback. Might not be this fall. But feels closer than 2-3 years. Trump is an economic idiot and will cajole and corrupt the fed until he gets low rates. Then if things turn ugly on inflation there’s no more FED put…
Great point, Mike. I do think the market may read through or ignore the number in the short-term because there is noise from the government shutdown. I do think inflation is still a problem. The positive catalysts I am watching right now, that we can’t lose sight of, are: 1. individual tax returns which are looking positive for consumers in that refunds are expected to be larger than expected 2. falling gas prices which also put money in consumer pockets 3. capex expensing leading to another positive economic catalyst. I do think there are some worrying trends, but these near term cyclical points may elongate the secular cycle
Great question. Gold used to be driven by real rates. However, that connection broke in 2022. The catalyst was US confiscaction of Russian central bank assets. This led many central banks to add to gold holdings. I don't think this latest move over the last few months is fueled by that but I do think the rally starting in 2023 was. The latest is a speculative blowout top driven by momentum trading. Gold is the most overbought I can ever find it. Structurally, I think you should either be long or flat, not short. Tactically, I can see a trade lower back to 3500. However, I do not think the reallocation into Gold is anywhere near over in the medium term
I still think each era is different but holds similarities to others. Things have grown so much with AI and technology, but the human overreaction is what is constant, and it just shows that being vigilant with your investments is even more important.