Another good missive, thanks. I read a lot. Most of the factors you touch on are mentioned by other writers as well, which gives me more confidence as to what is important to the thinking community out there. Other writers tend to isolate factors rather, and expound on them, which is certainly helpful. Your strength however is to go beyond and link factors together into logical sequences that make sense and paint a more complete picture. Sound thinking.
Thanks again for your effort and I hope your " curve ball" is straightening out somewhat.
I think we’re headed in two directions - stagflation and recession. What are the odds of us slipping into stagflation, breaking the backs of consumers, which then pushes us into deep recession? I’m thinking a repeat (maybe not to the degree) of the 70’s stagflations story, with a 2000’s style recession on the heals of it?
I think only a recession will break the back of inflation. I've been thinking we are in a replay of the 60s leading to the 70s. However, cutting spending and causing a recession cam break that cycle even if painful near term
Another good missive, thanks. I read a lot. Most of the factors you touch on are mentioned by other writers as well, which gives me more confidence as to what is important to the thinking community out there. Other writers tend to isolate factors rather, and expound on them, which is certainly helpful. Your strength however is to go beyond and link factors together into logical sequences that make sense and paint a more complete picture. Sound thinking.
Thanks again for your effort and I hope your " curve ball" is straightening out somewhat.
I think we’re headed in two directions - stagflation and recession. What are the odds of us slipping into stagflation, breaking the backs of consumers, which then pushes us into deep recession? I’m thinking a repeat (maybe not to the degree) of the 70’s stagflations story, with a 2000’s style recession on the heals of it?
I think only a recession will break the back of inflation. I've been thinking we are in a replay of the 60s leading to the 70s. However, cutting spending and causing a recession cam break that cycle even if painful near term