If you aren't sure if there is a hard landing or no landing, rate cuts or rate hikes forthcoming, or whether AI stocks are in a bubble or not, stand in line. A lot of people feel the same way
Could you please elaborate on the relation between Copper/Gold and US treasury yields? Why would yields go higher if global growth turns higher? Is it that as growth increases, commodities go lower, US$ goes lower and therefore yields have to go higher to support US bonds due to lower demand?
BTW: the next leg up in NVDA's growth after say 2026+ will be less about GPUs and more about subscription based software in AI, industrial automation and next gen transportation. By then generic and custom/application specific GPUs will be aplenty, LLMs will be open-source and data will be supremely important - clean data, licensed data, content IP etc. NVDA's GPU product lifecycle will turn a corner and it will imperative for them to pivot to becoming a software company to maintain their dominance in AI.
First of all, thank you for your NVDA comments. Second, on the copper/gold vs. US Treasury yields, it is as growth goes higher, commodities go higher and inflation will go higher as well. One looks at copper relative to gold to take the FX component out of it i.e. you don't want to look on copper on its own because there might be a US Dollar reason for a move in copper priced in dollars. The gold takes out FX. Copper is the measure of growth.
Another great write up, Richard. Thanks!
Could you please elaborate on the relation between Copper/Gold and US treasury yields? Why would yields go higher if global growth turns higher? Is it that as growth increases, commodities go lower, US$ goes lower and therefore yields have to go higher to support US bonds due to lower demand?
BTW: the next leg up in NVDA's growth after say 2026+ will be less about GPUs and more about subscription based software in AI, industrial automation and next gen transportation. By then generic and custom/application specific GPUs will be aplenty, LLMs will be open-source and data will be supremely important - clean data, licensed data, content IP etc. NVDA's GPU product lifecycle will turn a corner and it will imperative for them to pivot to becoming a software company to maintain their dominance in AI.
First of all, thank you for your NVDA comments. Second, on the copper/gold vs. US Treasury yields, it is as growth goes higher, commodities go higher and inflation will go higher as well. One looks at copper relative to gold to take the FX component out of it i.e. you don't want to look on copper on its own because there might be a US Dollar reason for a move in copper priced in dollars. The gold takes out FX. Copper is the measure of growth.
"Nvidia accounts for around 70% of AI semiconductor sales" Wow!