Like minds is my first thought. Believe there is a massive short covering rip, possibly this week. Just back from holiday, and as usual, markets upchuck during them and often recover when back, so there is that. One feature of the last year or so is that extreme sentiment have made for poor timing indicators as they have persisted which I believe is due to the domincance of momentum strategies which keep fueling the trend even if in prior times it might have caused a near-term reversal. Finally, wonder what you think of the argument that is made that is a counter to the recession is looking inevitable idea, namely the cash in bank deposits, low financial obligations ratio, high net worth to GDP, if coming down a bit, relatively low inventories, with a few notable exceptions, so no need for those to cause a big downshift in IP, and finally, can you really have a recession with peak in terminal real rates at a NEGATIVE level?
Awesome reading. Always a pleasure to be back here and read your takes on markets.
Like minds is my first thought. Believe there is a massive short covering rip, possibly this week. Just back from holiday, and as usual, markets upchuck during them and often recover when back, so there is that. One feature of the last year or so is that extreme sentiment have made for poor timing indicators as they have persisted which I believe is due to the domincance of momentum strategies which keep fueling the trend even if in prior times it might have caused a near-term reversal. Finally, wonder what you think of the argument that is made that is a counter to the recession is looking inevitable idea, namely the cash in bank deposits, low financial obligations ratio, high net worth to GDP, if coming down a bit, relatively low inventories, with a few notable exceptions, so no need for those to cause a big downshift in IP, and finally, can you really have a recession with peak in terminal real rates at a NEGATIVE level?