You mentioned "about 15% of our goods spending is imported", implying that tarrifs may not contribute to inflation all that much. A fair point. But my gut tells me a lot of imported goods are big ticket items ... cars, machinery, equipment, white goods, electronics, mobile phones etc. Sticker shock will probably impact or delay spending for these items, and have a negative sentiment effect. Which could cloud overall spending in general?
I think that is hard to say. Things coming in from China via WalMart, Amazon and Temu are not big ticket. Maybe Italian wine, German BMW and French handbags are. Only time really tells but I think early results suggest prices are leaning higher to me
Richard - how are things in Europe generally for US tourists these days? I am heading there in a couple of weeks. Stuff relatively expensive now given the rise in the euro? Lots of tourists or smaller crowds? Enjoy your trip and thanks.
More expensive than last year for sure. This week it wasn't so much US tourists. With the UK holiday weekend too, I saw far more UK tourists. Since US is not out of school yet, not as many summer holidays yet. Overall, I would say things are busy but not crowded, expensive but not crazy, and people confused but not angry
Thanks Rich, great post. With regards Tariffs, perhaps in the end it will be the U.S. who is hurt the most? I recall many years ago, traders visiting Japan.. growth was terrible .. they would buy usd calls .. and usdjpy went to 80. Perhaps it’s not all about growth..
You mentioned "about 15% of our goods spending is imported", implying that tarrifs may not contribute to inflation all that much. A fair point. But my gut tells me a lot of imported goods are big ticket items ... cars, machinery, equipment, white goods, electronics, mobile phones etc. Sticker shock will probably impact or delay spending for these items, and have a negative sentiment effect. Which could cloud overall spending in general?
I think that is hard to say. Things coming in from China via WalMart, Amazon and Temu are not big ticket. Maybe Italian wine, German BMW and French handbags are. Only time really tells but I think early results suggest prices are leaning higher to me
Richard - how are things in Europe generally for US tourists these days? I am heading there in a couple of weeks. Stuff relatively expensive now given the rise in the euro? Lots of tourists or smaller crowds? Enjoy your trip and thanks.
More expensive than last year for sure. This week it wasn't so much US tourists. With the UK holiday weekend too, I saw far more UK tourists. Since US is not out of school yet, not as many summer holidays yet. Overall, I would say things are busy but not crowded, expensive but not crazy, and people confused but not angry
Thanks Rich, great post. With regards Tariffs, perhaps in the end it will be the U.S. who is hurt the most? I recall many years ago, traders visiting Japan.. growth was terrible .. they would buy usd calls .. and usdjpy went to 80. Perhaps it’s not all about growth..
I could definitely see US being hurt the most. Just the continuation of the end if US outperformance it seems