Good piece Richard. At the moment I prefer, as you your data on growth suggest too, being long US growth vs Europe. This on equity means long spx vs sx5e (penalized also by chinese exposure).
On rates the reverse, I prefer to be long bund vs treasury. Yes the value factor is higher (high real rates, given also the different path on inflation), but the growth factor will weight more on this period of cuts for 24/25 rethinking.
Fiscal deficit will remain important for Us, especially going into next year election.
And given the cost for corporates, We will have less US stock buy back as well.
Productivity has grown faster in Western Europe than in the States, where longer hours and a strong DXY led to a higher GDP per capita, masking a stagnation in productivity. https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2023/10/04/productivity-has-grown-faster-in-western-europe-than-in-america
higher probability of recession in the U-S-A though...
Good piece Richard. At the moment I prefer, as you your data on growth suggest too, being long US growth vs Europe. This on equity means long spx vs sx5e (penalized also by chinese exposure).
On rates the reverse, I prefer to be long bund vs treasury. Yes the value factor is higher (high real rates, given also the different path on inflation), but the growth factor will weight more on this period of cuts for 24/25 rethinking.
Fiscal deficit will remain important for Us, especially going into next year election.