Golf is so frustrating. Only sadomasachists should play that sport. Hat tip, try running Sine Wave vs CESIUSD---its pure sex and is in line with bounce in data---generally SPX outperforms Treasuries when its going up....Here is another potential thought. Could the July hike, now 100bps on the cards be the last one of the cycle? Finally, ever check out the 1940s? Equities bottomed, then ranged traded, on the month that CPI peaked at 19.8%, which could be a nice analogue for scenario where there is no or mild downturn and would agree that nominal recession is harder to come by which means any earnings decline is also likely to be modest. Of course this comes with the usual caveat that whilst its hard to identify where the pockets of leverage and financial stress are this time, maybe some dead bodies, outside of crypto (which is sideshow) will cause a deeper downturn, Right now I don't see it, and am not at all convinced that ISM is going to 40. I am probably wrong, and may change my mind over the next 6-months, but that is where I am now...
Golf is so frustrating. Only sadomasachists should play that sport. Hat tip, try running Sine Wave vs CESIUSD---its pure sex and is in line with bounce in data---generally SPX outperforms Treasuries when its going up....Here is another potential thought. Could the July hike, now 100bps on the cards be the last one of the cycle? Finally, ever check out the 1940s? Equities bottomed, then ranged traded, on the month that CPI peaked at 19.8%, which could be a nice analogue for scenario where there is no or mild downturn and would agree that nominal recession is harder to come by which means any earnings decline is also likely to be modest. Of course this comes with the usual caveat that whilst its hard to identify where the pockets of leverage and financial stress are this time, maybe some dead bodies, outside of crypto (which is sideshow) will cause a deeper downturn, Right now I don't see it, and am not at all convinced that ISM is going to 40. I am probably wrong, and may change my mind over the next 6-months, but that is where I am now...