Lots of gems in here...Markets bottom when ISM bottoms and the Fed pivots---Of course markets are forward discounting mechanisms. So what we have here is divided opinion. Bears see ISM going lower, as recession is not fully reflected and equally they are sceptical that discounted Fed Funds peak and subsequent rate cuts priced in makes any sense. It has become quite binary because bulls see peak inflation, peak rates, and ISM bottoming in line with typical 18-21 month cycle as well as a belief that earnings downside is not typical in this cycle. Are you a glass half full or half empty sort more or less divides opinion
Well said. I can see the Fed peak and ISM bottom end Q1/early Q2. I don't see ISM to 40 or anything like that, though. After the market bottoms, I don't know how much upside there is, though. Maybe just a sideways sort of year
You saved your best post of the year for the end! Loved this write up and all the nuggets it contained. Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones. Cheers!
"It has been demonstrated again and again, from Imperial Rome to Weimar, Germany, that epidemic greed is a symptom not of revelling in present triumphs but of a fear that the game is winding down." Laurence Shames June 15, 1989.
great take, thank you! have a great Christmas soon ! :)
Lots of gems in here...Markets bottom when ISM bottoms and the Fed pivots---Of course markets are forward discounting mechanisms. So what we have here is divided opinion. Bears see ISM going lower, as recession is not fully reflected and equally they are sceptical that discounted Fed Funds peak and subsequent rate cuts priced in makes any sense. It has become quite binary because bulls see peak inflation, peak rates, and ISM bottoming in line with typical 18-21 month cycle as well as a belief that earnings downside is not typical in this cycle. Are you a glass half full or half empty sort more or less divides opinion
Well said. I can see the Fed peak and ISM bottom end Q1/early Q2. I don't see ISM to 40 or anything like that, though. After the market bottoms, I don't know how much upside there is, though. Maybe just a sideways sort of year
Wow, this is full of gems packed in a jewelry box! A lot for me to work on during this holiday season.
You saved your best post of the year for the end! Loved this write up and all the nuggets it contained. Happy Holidays to you and your loved ones. Cheers!
"It has been demonstrated again and again, from Imperial Rome to Weimar, Germany, that epidemic greed is a symptom not of revelling in present triumphs but of a fear that the game is winding down." Laurence Shames June 15, 1989.