I believe the rally will be driven by large tech earnings (Apple, Microsoft). I like your travel component and agree that it is an economic driver that will fall off in the near future.
I do not believe real positive economic change can happen without oil falling.
I do not understand how gold and silver have declined while the dollar has weakened.
I do not know if the gdp numbers are adjusted for inflation.
Don't focus on GDP. It is a distraction. Watch the coincident and leading indicators instead.
Dollar weakening is really pretty minor in the context of the move it has had. I can tell you from having traded gold, you really need to look at it in the context of many different currencies. The biggest holders/traders of gold are exposed not to the dollar but to currencies like EUR, JPY, CNY, EMFX etc. Gold has not declined relative to these. Silver is a function of the global economy which is slowing. I guess I would disagree that real economic change can happening BECAUSE of high energy prices. To paraphrase Samuel Johnson, a good hanging focuses the mind. These high prices are forcing everyone on either side of the climate debate to focus on the objectively sustainable solutions going forward. Thanks for the comments
Excellent write up!
I believe the rally will be driven by large tech earnings (Apple, Microsoft). I like your travel component and agree that it is an economic driver that will fall off in the near future.
I do not believe real positive economic change can happen without oil falling.
I do not understand how gold and silver have declined while the dollar has weakened.
I do not know if the gdp numbers are adjusted for inflation.
Don't focus on GDP. It is a distraction. Watch the coincident and leading indicators instead.
Dollar weakening is really pretty minor in the context of the move it has had. I can tell you from having traded gold, you really need to look at it in the context of many different currencies. The biggest holders/traders of gold are exposed not to the dollar but to currencies like EUR, JPY, CNY, EMFX etc. Gold has not declined relative to these. Silver is a function of the global economy which is slowing. I guess I would disagree that real economic change can happening BECAUSE of high energy prices. To paraphrase Samuel Johnson, a good hanging focuses the mind. These high prices are forcing everyone on either side of the climate debate to focus on the objectively sustainable solutions going forward. Thanks for the comments