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Fire!
Shouting fire in a crowded theater is not protected speech in the real world. It can also cost you a lot of money in the markets. Unless there is…
Richard Excell
May 6
13
2
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Fire!
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Baia del Silenzio
"Between Siestri and Chiaveri descends -- A river beautiful, and of its name -- The title of my blood its summit makes." - Dante, The Divine Comedy
Richard Excell
Jun 25
12
4
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Baia del Silenzio
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“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.
Exploring how past market crises can help us navigate the current one
Richard Excell
Jun 17
10
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“History Doesn't Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes” – Mark Twain.
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"I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for a while yet." - Carl Spackler
Everyone is gearing up for a recession right now because the stock market is pricing it in. What does that mean for the markets right now?
Richard Excell
May 20
12
3
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"I don't think the heavy stuff is gonna come down for a while yet." - Carl Spackler
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Sideways
“Maya: What's the title? Miles: The Day After Yesterday. Maya: Oh... You mean today?”
Richard Excell
Jun 10
11
4
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Sideways
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"Well, I've been down so very damn long, that it looks like up to me" - Jim Morrison
The economy is already slowing and expected to slow some more. Will the ISM next week confirm the recession mindset that is creeping into the market?
Richard Excell
May 27
10
2
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"Well, I've been down so very damn long, that it looks like up to me" - Jim Morrison
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“Get the fundamentals down, and the level of everything you do will rise.” - Michael Jordan.
The fundamentals are still telling us to be careful of risk-taking. Stay Vigilant
May 1
8
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“Get the fundamentals down, and the level of everything you do will rise.” - Michael Jordan.
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Can anything happen that will change people's minds?
Look through the potential catalysts in the markets to get a sense of what can change the narrative we are now forced to deal with
Richard Excell
May 12
8
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Can anything happen that will change people's minds?
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Sell in May and go away?
Is there credence here or is this trite expression as predictive as Punxsutawney Phil?
Richard Excell
Jun 2
5
2
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Sell in May and go away?
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Looking at the three body problem in unison
Yes, oversold conditions and extreme bearishness is leading to a bounce, but the trends still suggest we sell the rallies
Richard Excell
Mar 25
4
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Looking at the three body problem in unison
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The behavioral biases of the market
It is not just fundamentals that drive prices, but supply and demand that do, particularly in the short-term. How do biases affect this flow?
Richard Excell
Apr 8
5
1
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The behavioral biases of the market
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Starting over
Three body problem of the markets: Looking at the market through three different lenses
Richard Excell
Mar 4
5
1
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Starting over
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